what a fantastic chart from @kevinmuir showing how unusual this earnings season has been
contributed by Andy on May 14, 2026 in spaghetti, things that go up, outlier
At the same time, most great coaches tend to outperform win probability model expectations So being simply average in spots with >75% win probability may point to something
contributed by Andy on Sep 8, 2025 in VORP, things that go up
contributed by Andy on Mar 16, 2025 in group chat, sad
videoI just pushed a new paper to arXiv. I realized that a lot of my previous work on robust losses and nerf-y things was dancing around something simpler: a slight tweak to the classic Box-Cox power transform that makes it much more useful and stable. It's this f(x, λ) here:
contributed by Andy on Feb 18, 2025 in curves, future fields medalists
Something happened in year 774 that was so powerful we can measure the radioactivity in old tree rings. Best guess is a solar flare, 10 times more powerful than the Carrington Event in 1859 that zapped telegraph wires. Worth considering the effect of the next one. Details:
contributed by Andy on Feb 14, 2025 in trees, eek
My textbook now includes an updated figure from Carter & McCullough, 2014. It's now generated from the raw data. It's a striking image. The uncorrected effect size is d = 0.62 based on 198 studies. Now, large replications later, we know the true effect size is 0. What a waste.
— @lakens
contributed by Andy on Jun 12, 2023 in hard to parse, acronyms, replication
Los Angeles compared to other cities
contributed by Andy on May 29, 2023 in small multiples, things that go up, bloomberg
The geographic pattern of house price change in the Northeast since the pandemic began is just stunning. Demand is being pushed out of expensive places
contributed by Andy on May 26, 2023 in covid, progress?, actually this is a map
Adam, a 9-yr old optimizer, is the go-to for training LLMs (eg, GPT-3, OPT, LLAMA). Introducing Sophia, a new optimizer that is 2x faster than Adam on LLMs. Just a few more lines of code could cut your costs from $2M to $1M (if scaling laws hold). https://t.co/GrMY600lLO 🧵⬇️
contributed by Andy on May 24, 2023 in curves, small multiples
Another example: Take two glasses of equally sweet water and mix them together. Children of intermediate age think that the resulting solution will be sweeter than the originals! Similar results have been found for water temperature.
contributed by Andy on Apr 21, 2023 in curves